基于自然贮存性能退化数据的电子装备贮存可靠性估计方法

通过对某两种型号的涡轮发动机电子控制器长期自然贮存数据的统计,发现电子控制器的关键参数"设定转速"随着贮存时间的延长存在显著下降趋势。根据对测试数据的分析,建立了控制器转速性能退化规律的数学模型,采用最大似然估计和区间估计方法对模型参数进行估计,给出了使用模型预测控制器贮存期内转速超差概率的数值计算方法。研究表明控制器在贮存10年后超差概率显著提高,需要重新进行调节。

Storage Reliability Estimation Method Base on Performance Degradation Data of Dormant Electronics

Statistical analysis of turbine engine controllers＇ long-term storage data reveals notable degradation on controller rotation speed.A mathematical model is derived from the data analysis to estimate the degradation rate with maximum likelihood estimation and interval estimation.The prediction of out-of-tolerance probability by numerical calculation demonstrates that the out-of-tolerance probability will obviously increase after ten years.The controllers in storage should be monitored and adjusted to their initial setting after certain years of storage to retain their reliability.