武器对抗仿真系统运行可信性评估研究

传统仿真系统可信性评估是考虑仿真系统中所有因素影响,是对仿真系统可信性的综合评价,但对于评估不同任务下武器对抗仿真的可信性具有一定局限性;针对这类根据任务需要不同仿真模型参与情况下的仿真系统运行可信性问题,分析了传统可信性评估方法得到的仿真系统固有可信度的局限性,建立了仿真系统运行可信树评估模型,明确了系统运行时仿真模型之间可信性关系,给出了仿真系统运行可信度点估计和置信下限计算方法;实例分析结果表明:仿真系统运行可信性能够更加有效地衡量和区分不同任务条件下对抗仿真的可信性,更具工程实用性。

Dynamic Credibility Estimation of Weaponry Rivalries Simulation System

The credibility of weaponry rivalries simulation system composed of the Red and the Blue weaponry models varies according to the differences of the missions, which involve different weaponry models. The traditional credibility of simulation, named as the intrinsic credibility, is a complete estimation under the influence of all weaponry models. But the intrinsic credibility has its limitation when different missions are simulated. To solve the problem that the intrinsic credibility of simulation cannot depict and measure the difference in simulation credibility appropriately when different missions are simulated, the paper constructed dynamic credibility tree of running simulation, determined credibility structure of simulation system and models, and brought forward the estimation and inferior limit of simulation system credibility. The analysis of the differences in dynamic credibility between simulations of two different missions demonstrates that the dynamic credibility is better than the intrinsic credibility when measuring the credibility of a running simulation system.