基于模糊故障树的舰空导弹系统可靠性分析

针对外在因素影响舰空导弹系统可靠性分析的问题,区别于传统作战系统可靠性分析法,提出一种采用模糊故障树分析法研究舰空导弹系统可靠性的方法;采用三角模糊数表示事件故障率,并基于三角模糊数给出了模糊概率重要度及相关计算方法;在分析舰空导弹系统结构的基础上,建立了系统故障树,并将故障树模块化计算;实例分析结果表明:所提方法较好解决了数据不确定性问题,简单有效,为相关系统可靠性工作提供了参考依据及研究思路.

Reliability Analysis of Ship-to-Air Missile Weapon System Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree

In order to solve the reliability analysis problem of ship-to-air missile weapon system,an analysis method based on fuzzy fault tree was proposed.Firstly,the probability of event occurrence was represented by triangular fuzzy number,and fuzzy probability importance degree based on triangular fuzzy number and the related calculation method was given.Secondly,the ship-to-air missile weapon system fault tree was established,and the fault tree was calculated and analyzed.The results of analysis show that the proposed method which can solve the problem of data uncertainty provides simple and effective reference and research idea for reliability analysis of related systems.