设计初期燃气轮机可靠度的模糊预计模型

提出一种带置信因子的广义梯形模糊数及其一致性判据,进而从评价集、权重赋值和单因素评判三个方面改进现行的模糊综合评判方法.然后,据此建立一种在设计初期可以借助专家经验得到不同置信水平下的燃气轮机可靠度的模糊预计模型.通过工程案例说明其具体的应用方法,并得到了较为合理的预计结果.

Model of Fuzzy Prediction for Gas Turbine Engine Reliability During Early Design

The trapezoidal fuzzy numbers with confidence degrees and the criterion of fuzzy number consensus are proposed,and the current methods of fuzzy synthetic assessment are improved in the comment set,weighting and single factor assessment.Taking expert’ experiences into full account,a prediction model for gas turbine engine reliability during conceptual design is established based on the developed fuzzy synthetic assessment approach.With the help of expert’ experiments,the confidence intervals of reliability at the different confidence levels can be obtained by use of the model.Finally,its application in an engineering example is discussed and the reasonable result is got.