CMIP5气候模式对未来30年太阳辐射变化的预估研究

使用CMIP5中33个全球气候模式的模拟数据,选择中位数集合方案,分别在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下对2006~2050年全球所有天气条件下地表接收到的太阳辐射、无云条件下地表接收到的太阳辐射、相对湿度、近地层风速、近地层气温和云量的变化进行预估研究。结果表明:1)在RCP8.5情景下,气温的增温率在50°N以北地区最大,达0.12 K/a。同时北半球增温率大于南半球,陆表气温的增温率大于海表气温;2)在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,中国东南部和欧洲中东部地区的地表太阳直接辐射呈现较大正趋势;3)在所选3个区域中,不同RCP情景下地表太阳辐射均呈现正趋势,其中在RCP8.5情景下法国波尔多地表太阳辐射呈现最大正趋势。

PREDICTION OF SOLAR RADIATION VARIATION IN FUTURE BY CMIP5 CLIMATE MODEL

By using the simulated data of 33 global climate models in CMIP5,this paper chooses the median aggregation scheme to predict the surface solar radiation(including cloudless and all-weather conditions),relative humidity,nearsurface wind velocity,near-surface temperature,cloud variation of global and three focal photovoltaic power plants under different RCP scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results show that:1)Under RCP 8.5 scenario,the growht rate of temperature is maximum value in the 50°N,which is 0.12 K/a. At the same time,the increasing trend of the northern hemisphere is greater than that of the southern hemisphere,and the increasing trend of the land surface is greater than that of the ocean. 2)Under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios,the surface solar radiation in southeastern China and East-and Central-Europe shows the larger positive trend. 3)For selected three regions,the surface solar radiation shows a positive trend under different RCP scenarios. Among them,under RCP8.5 scenario,the variation of surface solar radiation at Bordeaux region in France shows the largest positive trend.