石油供求关系回顾与展望

2005年,全球经济增长带动了石油需求的增加,而原油产量增长有限,加上炼制能力和飓风及政治突发事件等影响,石油价格暴涨。2006年的国际石油供求形势和油价走势,既有促降因素,也有促升因素,还有飓风恢复和政治等不确定因素。总的来说,世界石油需求继续增加,市场更显紧张;油价取决于需求增幅的大小和产能建设的速度,总体水平应该是每桶50～60美元。

Overviews and Outlook of Relation of Oil Supply and Demand

In 2005, the increasing growth of economy enhances petroleum demand. Reasons for petroleum price rising quickly include the limited increase of crude oil product, the capacity of refinery, the influence of hurricane and the political events occurred unexpectedly. In 2006, the oil supply and demand and the oil price tendency of international petroleum can reduce the influences of above-mentioned factors, and also can increase its influences of these factors. It also has uncertainty factors including recovery of hurricane, politics and et al. In a word, the continued increasing demand for the world petroleum makes the market tension. The petroleum price is decided by the increasing demand for oil and the rate of production capacity construction, the total oil price level should be $50-60.