基于可靠性—成本模型的电力系统电源规划研究

针对负荷增长的不确定性及资金不足等是经济落后地区电力系统电源规划所面临的巨大机遇和挑战问题,提出了结合可靠性及成本两个主要因素的电力系统电源规划决策新方法,建立了可靠性—成本评价模型,并通过算例研究了独立系统及互联系统的可靠性,探究了互联系统相对于独立系统增加的收益,并确定了可行的发电扩容计划。研究结果表明,负荷的不确定性对电力系统规划和成本均有显著影响。

Research on Power Source Planning of Power System Based on Reliability and Cost Model

In economic underdeveloped areas, uncertainty of load growth and capital scarcity are enormous challenge and opportunity for power source planning of power system. New method of power source planning is proposed by considering reliability and cost. And the reliability-cost evaluation model is established. Then the reliability of isolated system and interconnection system and studied with example. Finally, increased profits of interconnection system are discussed and the feasible expansion capacity planning is obtained. The results show that the load uncertainty has obvious impact on power system planning and cost.