基于灰色组合模型的浙江省需水量预测

针对传统需水量预测模型存在的不足,将GM(1,1)模型和灰色Verhulst模型相结合,构建了灰色组合模型,并对模型采用残差和权重分配相结合的二次修正方式进行修正,在分析浙江省1998~2012年用水现状的基础上,利用二次修正后的灰色组合模型预测了2013~2020年浙江省的用水情况。结果表明,在未来的一段时间内,浙江省的需水量增长会逐步加快,尤其体现在居民生活用水和工业用水上。因此,做好工业生产节水工作,加快产业结构调整是今后工作的重点。

Water Demand Prediction in Zhejiang Province Based on Grey Combination Model

Aiming at the shortcomings of traditional water demand prediction model, grey combined model is established by integrating grey model GM(1,1) with grey Verhulst model. Residual error and weighting distribution are used to correct the model. On the basis of analyzing current situation of water resources of Zhejiang Province in 1998-2012, the proposed model is used to predicate water resources situation of Zhejiang Province in 2013-2020. The results show that in the next period of time, the amount of water demand in Zhejiang Province will gradually speed up in growth, particularly on the residents living water and industrial water. Therefore, future work is focused on industrial production of water-saving and speeding up the adjustment of industrial structure.