| 基于统计降尺度的黄河源区气象极值预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 王晓燕,杨涛,郝振纯.基于统计降尺度的黄河源区气象极值预测[J].水电能源科学,2011,29(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 王晓燕 杨涛 郝振纯 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京,210098 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(40901016,40830639); 国家重点基础发展研究计划基金资助项目(2010CB428405); 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室自主探索课题基金资助项目(2009586612,2009585512) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对全球气候变化对水文过程及极值事件的影响,在HadCM3的A2、B2情景下,应用统计降尺度模型(SDSM)预测了黄河源区未来气温、降雨和蒸发极值的变化趋势,并讨论了模拟效果。结果表明,模型对温度极值的捕捉效果不错,但降雨和蒸发略差,尤其是降水量、蒸发量较大的夏秋季。多数降水极值指标的变化趋势能成功模拟,而对量的捕捉能力是随指标变化的,黄河源区未来不同季节平均气温、蒸发的平均值、极值均呈增加趋势,最大持续干旱日显著减少,极端降雨强度在春秋季节大幅增加。这些变化将对高原寒区的水文及生态环境带来积极影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 全球气候耦合模式 统计降尺度 气象极值事件 SDSM 情景预测 |
Climate Extreme Forecasting in Headwater Catchment of Yellow River Based on Statistical Downscaling Method |
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| WANG Xiaoyan,YANG Tao,HAO Zhenchun.Climate Extreme Forecasting in Headwater Catchment of Yellow River Based on Statistical Downscaling Method[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2011,29(4). |
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| Authors: | WANG Xiaoyan YANG Tao HAO Zhenchun |
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| Affiliation: | WANG Xiaoyan,YANG Tao,HAO Zhenchun(State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulics Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China) |
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| Abstract: | The impact of climate change on hydrological extreme events is a serious problem.The statistical downscaling model(SDSM) is applied to forecast the change trend of future climate(i.e.temperature,precipitation and extreme evaporation) in headwater catchment of Yellow River basin under the A2 and B2 scenarios in HadCM3 model.The results show that the model can predict temperature extreme perfectly;however,prediction of precipitation and evaporation extremes are less satisfactory,especially for summer and autu... |
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| Keywords: | climate change coupled general circulation model statistical downscaling climate extreme event SDSM scenario forecasting |
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