| 基于MOMM-GLUE法月水量平衡模型不确定性分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 刘冀,董晓华,李英海.基于MOMM-GLUE法月水量平衡模型不确定性分析[J].水电能源科学,2011,29(4). |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 刘冀 董晓华 李英海 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌,443002 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(40701024) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 以两参数月水量平衡模型为例,建立了用于模型不确定性分析的MOMM-GLUE方法,针对单目标参数率定的不足,采用基于MCMC方法的多目标SCEM-UA算法推求参数后验分布,应用GLUE法分析参数的敏感性与预报不确定性。并针对蒸发规律明显的季节性,将两参数模型的蒸发参数C按汛期与非汛期分解为三参数模型。结果表明,不同目标函数分析参数敏感性结果不同,较高后验密度的参数集并不十分敏感,有利于参数寻优;就区间估计而言,三参数模型优于两参数模型,但相应增加了参数不确定性。
|
| 关 键 词： | MCMC 月水量平衡模型 不确定性 敏感性 后验分布 |
Uncertainty Analysis of Monthly Water Balance Model Based on MOMM-GLUE Algorithm |
| |
| LIU Ji,DONG Xiaohua,LI Yinghai.Uncertainty Analysis of Monthly Water Balance Model Based on MOMM-GLUE Algorithm[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2011,29(4). |
| |
| Authors: | LIU Ji DONG Xiaohua LI Yinghai |
| |
| Affiliation: | LIU Ji,DONG Xiaohua,LI Yinghai(College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | The method of MOMM-GLUE is developed for analyzing the uncertainty of two parameters water balance model(P2M) and MCMC-based multi-object SCEM-UA algorithm is applied to infer parameter of posterior distribution.And the sensitivity and forecasting uncertainty of model parameters is studied with GLUE method.Due to the season changes of watershed evaporation,the evaporation parameter C is divided into two parameters corresponding to the flood season and non-flood season,which is called three-parameter model(P... |
| |
| Keywords: | MCMC monthly water balance model uncertainty sensitivity posterior distribution |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
