| 灰色自记忆模型在年径流预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 解苗苗,王文圣,王红芳.灰色自记忆模型在年径流预测中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2007,25(2):8-10,4. |
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| 作者姓名： | 解苗苗 王文圣 王红芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 四川大学,水电学院,四川,成都,610065
2. 四川大学,水电学院,四川,成都,610065;中国气象局,成都高原气象研究所,四川,成都,610072 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金;中国气象局成都高原气象实验室基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 为探索提高年径流预测精度的简单有效途径,以GM(1,1)微分方程为动力核建立了灰色自记忆模型,并应用于寸滩站年径流的拟合和预测中,取得了良好的效果。与组合模型相比,该模型结构简单并具有较高的拟合和预测精度,可应用于年径流序列的预测之中。
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| 关 键 词： | 年径流预测 灰色微分方程 自记忆模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-7709（2007）02-0008-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006/12/15 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-152007-03-08 |
Application of Grey Self-memory Model in Prediction of Annual Runoff |
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| XIE Miaomiao,WANG Wensheng,WANG Hongfang.Application of Grey Self-memory Model in Prediction of Annual Runoff[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2007,25(2):8-10,4. |
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| Authors: | XIE Miaomiao WANG Wensheng WANG Hongfang |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Hydraulic College of Sichuan Univ. ,Chengdu 610065,China; 2. Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology,Chengdu 610072,China |
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| Abstract: | To increase the efficiency of medium and annual runoff prediction,the grey self-memory model based on GM(1,1) differential equation was established.The results show that the model has good effects on fitting and forecasting the annual runoff in Cuntan station by comparison with the combination model,and is feasible to forecast annual runoff. |
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| Keywords: | annual runoff prediction gery differential equation self-memory model |
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