王快水库与西大洋水库连通条件下入库径流演变及影响因素分析

研究王快水库与西大洋水库两库连通状态下的入库径流变化规律与丰枯遭遇,对于保障雄安新区用水安全有重要意义。基于1971~2015年共45年的径流和降水的月数据系列,利用滑动平均法、有序聚类法、不均匀系数、集中度、集中期和频率分析法等,研究了王快与西大洋水库入库径流的年际年内变化,并分析了两库的丰枯遭遇状况。结果表明,王快水库与西大洋水库年际入库径流总体呈减少趋势,随时间变化表现出丰枯交替现象,45年间均出现两次突变,突变时间为1979、1996年;入库径流年内分配不均匀性、集中程度均呈下降趋势,随着时间推移入库径流年内分配趋于均匀,两库入库径流的变化规律在年际、年内一致。不论是全年还是年内各月,王快水库与西大洋水库丰枯同步频率大于丰枯异步频率,丰枯同步性高,丰枯补偿特征不明显。入库径流的变化受降水及人类活动的综合作用影响。研究成果可为径流调控提供参考。

Inflow Runoff Evolution and Analysis of Their Influencing Factors under Connection of Wangkuai and Xidayang Reservoirs

It is of great significance to study the inflow runoff variation law and the wet-dry encounter of Wangkuai reservoir and Xidayang reservoir under the condition of their connection, so as to ensure the water safety of Xiongan New Area. Based on the runoff and precipitation monthly time series data from 1971 to 2015, moving average method, sequential clustering method, non-uniformity coefficient, complete adjustment coefficient, concentration degree and period, frequency analysis method are chosen to analyze the inter-annual and annual variations characteristics of inflow runoff of Wangkuai and Xidayang reservoirs, and the wet-dry encountering situation of the two reservoirs are also analyzed. The results show that the inter-annual inflow runoff of Wangkuai and Xidayang reservoirs showed a decreasing trend in general, showing a phenomenon of alternation of wet-dry over time. There were two sudden changes in 45 years, the sudden change times were 1979 and 1996, respectively. The annual uneven and concentration distribution of inflow runoff of two reservoirs are decreasing, and tend to be uniform with the passage of time. The inter-annual and annual variations of inflow runoff of the two reservoirs are consistent. Whether in the whole year or in each month of the year, the synchronous probability of two reservoirs is bigger than synchronization probability, and the synchronous encounter probability of wet-dry is large, the compensatory characteristics of the two reservoirs is not obvious. The variation of inflow runoff is affected by precipitation and human activities. The research results can provide reference for runoff regulation.