考虑风电场出力相关性的发输电系统风险规划

风电集群出力的不确定性和相关性给电力系统规划带来了严峻挑战,为此基于D藤Pair Copula函数理论,先建立考虑风电出力相关性的多维风电场出力模型;然后综合考虑系统的可靠性和经济性,以投资成本、燃料费用、系统切负荷费用及环境成本之和最小为目标函数,建立考虑风电场出力相关性的发输电系统风险规划模型;最后从停电损失和控制代价指标两个维度,对规划方案进行评估。将所建模型和方法应用于改进的IEEE-RTS24节点系统中,结果表明所建模型能有效评估系统风险水平,提高规划方案的鲁棒性。

Risk Planning of Composite Generation and Transmission System Considering Output Correlation of Wind Farms

The uncertainty and correlation of wind power cluster output brings severe challenges to power system planning. Therefore, based on the D-vine Pair Copula function theory, this paper established the model of multi-dimensional wind power considering the output correlation of wind farms. Then comprehensively considering the reliability and economy of the system, the risk planning model of the generation and transmission system considering the output correlation of wind farms was established, which took the minimum of the sum of investment cost, fuel cost, system load shedding cost and environmental cost as the objective function. Finally, from the two dimensions of the power outage loss and the control cost index, the planning scheme of the different scenes was assessed. Case studies on the IEEE-RTS24 bus system indicate that the model can assess the risk level of the system and improve the robustness of the planning result.