基于可信性规划的昆明市水资源优化配置模型

针对缺水型城市水资源配置过程中存在的不确定性和复杂性等问题,建立了基于可信性规划理论的模糊机会约束规划模型,同时设计了基于模糊模拟的鱼群算法进行求解,并将其应用于昆明市水资源优化配置中。在模拟模型中各规划水平年的可信性均达到决策需要数值,表明昆明市整体在决策需要置信条件下处于可持续发展状态,缺水环境影响下的水资源配置结果满足城市发展需求。在配置中决策者可设定不同的置信水平进行分析评价,在风险和收益两方面的中间确定平衡点,使最终决策方案尽可能为最优解。

A Credibility Planning Model of Optimal Water Resources Allocation for Kunming City

Motivated by the uncertainty and complexity in water resource allocation of water shortage city, a fuzzy chance constrained programming model based the credibility theory of planning is established. And then the fish swarm algorithm is designed to solve the model based on the fuzzy simulation. At the same time, the model is applied to study the optimal allocation model of water resource in Kunming City. The credibility of simulation model in each planning years are reached the decision value. It means that the Kunming City is in the state of sustainable development at the confidence conditions of decision demand. Under the water scarcity environment, the water resource allocation results meet the requirements of urban development. The decision-maker can analyze the configuration and determine the equilibrium point between the risk and the profit by setting different confidence level so that the final decision can be the optimal solution as soon as possible.