基于层次分析法的城市配电网风险分析

针对城市配电网在长期运行过程中存在配电设备老化、运行可靠性差、供电能力有限等问题,构建包括元件、运行水平和供电能力3个一级指标和14个二级指标的城市配电网风险分析指标体系,应用3标度层次分析法分析各项指标所占权重,进而将配电网风险状态分为优秀、良好、一般、较差、差五个等级。实例分析表明,基于层次分析法的城市配电网风险指标体系合理有效,使配电网规划、建设改造和优化运行更有针对性,风险等级划分更有利于直观了解配电网状态,合理安排配网规划和生产计划。

Risk Analysis of Urban Distribution Network Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

This paper put forward a risk index system for the risk analysis of urban distribution network according to the related standards. Based on the components, the operational level and supply capability, this risk index system includes 3 first grade indexes and 14 second grade indexes. According to the 3-scale AHP, the weight of each index is analyzed. And then the risk state of distribution network is divided into five levels. This proposed system facilitates the planning, upgrade and optimization of grid. Planners and decision makers are enable to know the state of distribution network clearly, and arrange network planning and distribution plans reasonably by means of the risk grade. As case analysis demonstrates that the risk index system of distribution network based on AHP is reasonable and effective.