白龙江中上游径流变化及其对气候和人类活动的响应

河川径流是水资源重要组成部分,径流变化归因分析对于流域水资源安全及管理具有重要意义。基于白龙江中上游1960~2015年水文气象资料,采用多种统计学方法、基于Budyko假设的弹性分析法研究径流变化特征及归因分析。结果表明,径流呈显著下降趋势,线性倾向变化率为-2.69×10⁸m³/10a,其临界突变发生在1986年,呈先上升后下降的趋势;径流量分布集中,6~10月占比63.59%,夏秋两季占比70.62%;径流减少受气候变化和人类活动影响,双累积曲线法影响率分别为33.02%、66.98%,累积量斜率变化率法影响率分别为44.17%、55.83%,弹性分析法影响率分别为35%~39%、61%~65%,可见人类活动为径流减少的主要影响因素,同时,弹性分析法计算结果介于其他两种方法计算结果之间,最为可靠。

Runoff Variation of Bailongjiang River in Upper and Middle Reaches and Its Response to Climate Change and Human Activities

River runoff is an important part of water resources, and the attribution analysis of runoff change is of great significance for water resources security and management in the basin. Based on the hydrometeorological data of the upper and middle reaches of the Bailongjiang River from 1960 to 2015, a variety of statistical methods and elasticity analysis based on Budyko hypothesis were used to study the characteristics and attribution analysis of runoff change. The results show that the overall runoff showed a significant downward trend, with a linear trend change rate of-2.69×10⁸m³/10 a. The critical mutation of annual runoff change was 1986, which showed a trend of firstly increasing and then decreasing. The runoff distribution was concentrated, accounting for 63.59% from June to October, and 70.62% in summer and autumn. Runoff reduction was affected by climate change and human activities. The influence rate of double accumulation curve method was 33.02%, 66.98%, accumulation slope change rate method was 44.17%, 55.83%, and elasticity analysis method was 35%-39%, 61%-65%. It could be seen that the human activities were the main influencing factor of runoff reduction. The result of elastic analysis was the most reliable among the other two methods.