碳价格水平提升条件下的可再生能源发电投资决策研究

鉴于提高碳价格对可再生能源发电投资具有双重影响,因此有必要研究碳价格提升条件下的发电投资决策。以风电和燃气发电为例,基于自由竞争发电市场下的竞价原理,构建碳价格提升条件下发电投资决策的非合作博弈模型,给出不同碳价格水平下各发电商容量投资的纳什均衡状态。结果表明,该模型能有效地量化碳价格的提升对可再生能源发电投资决策的影响,有助于政府制定合理的碳价格。

Investment Decision-making of Renewable Energy Generation with Increasing of Carbon Price

Since the increase of carbon price has double impacts on renewable energy generation, it is necessary to make research on generation investment decision with the increasing of carbon price. Based on the pricing principle in a liberalized market, a model of generation investment decision-making is proposed by using non-cooperative game theory, in which there are two representative generators-wind and gas. Then different Nash equilibrium capacity levels of generation company are obtained under different carbon price. Simulation results indicate that the proposed model can effectively quantify the impacts of increasing carbon price on the capacity investment decision-making of renewable energy generation technology, and provide some useful reference for the government to set a reasonable carbon price.