基于时间序列法的高拱坝强度安全裕度分析评价模型及应用

为定量分析高拱坝坝体及坝基强度安全裕度，以时间序列法为理论基础，根据应力计及应变计的监测数据系列计算出坝体及坝基的实测应力，利用实测应力与容许应力的差值和标准应力的比值构建强度安全裕度场，建立了高拱坝坝体及坝基强度安全裕度分析评价模型。通过对监测数据的分析计算，实时反馈拱坝坝体及坝基强度安全裕度水平，并对强度安全裕度进行了二步预测，通过对比预测值与实测值，验证了模型的有效性。

Strength Safety Margin Analysis and Evaluation Model of High Arch Dam Foundation Based on Time Series Method

To get the quantitative analysis of high arch dam body and dam foundation strength safety margin, based on the theoretical method of time series, the measured stress is calculated with the monitoring data of stress gage and strain gage. And then the strength safety margin field is established by using the ratio of the difference value between measured stress and standard stress to standard stress. Finally, it establishes analysis and evaluation model of strength safety margin of high arch dam body and dam foundation. Through analysis of mmonitoring data, this article achieves the timely feedback of the strength safety margin level, and forecast the strength safety margin for two-step stage. Comparison of prediction and measured value, the effectiveness of the model is verified.