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三峡水库中长期径流预报方法研究
引用本文:纪昌明,李克飞,张验科,赵璧奎.三峡水库中长期径流预报方法研究[J].水电能源科学,2013,31(1):8-11.
作者姓名:纪昌明  李克飞  张验科  赵璧奎
作者单位:华北电力大学 可再生能源学院, 北京 102206;华北电力大学 可再生能源学院, 北京 102206;华北电力大学 可再生能源学院, 北京 102206;华北电力大学 可再生能源学院, 北京 102206
基金项目:国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项基金资助项目(2009ZX07423 001);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51179069);中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助项目(10QX43)
摘    要:中长期径流预报是充分利用水资源、发挥电站经济效益的有力手段。以三峡水库为研究对象,分别采用周期外延叠加技术、人工神经网络模型、投影寻踪自回归模型和支持向量机回归模型对三峡水库逐月入库径流进行预报。从不同侧面比较分析了这四种方法优劣,并总结各预报模型计算结果的特征及规律,为三峡水库寻求径流预报规律和制定未来中长期调度计划提供了技术支持。

关 键 词:中长期径流预报  周期分析  神经网络  投影寻踪  支持向量机  三峡水库

Study on Medium and Long Term Runoff Forecasting Method for Three Gorges Reservoir
JI Changming,LI Kefei,ZHANG Yanke and ZHAO Bikui.Study on Medium and Long Term Runoff Forecasting Method for Three Gorges Reservoir[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2013,31(1):8-11.
Authors:JI Changming  LI Kefei  ZHANG Yanke and ZHAO Bikui
Institution:School of Renewable Energy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;School of Renewable Energy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;School of Renewable Energy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;School of Renewable Energy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Abstract:Medium and long term runoff forecasting is an effective means for utilization of water resources and playing economic benefits of the power plant. Taking the Three Gorges Reservoir for an example, periodic extension superposition technique, artificial neural network model, projection pursuit auto regression model and support vector machine regression model is used to forecast the monthly runoff, respectively. The disadvantages and advantages of four methods are compared from different aspects. Moreover, the characteristics and laws of forecasting model are summarized. Thus, it provides technical support for discovering runoff forecasting rules and making the future medium and long term power generation plan of Three Gorges Reservoir.
Keywords:medium and long term runoff forecasting  cycle analysis  neural network  projection pursuit  support vector machine  Three Gorges Reservoir
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