| 水电站水库预报发电调度的模糊风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李克飞,纪昌明,张验科,向腾飞.水电站水库预报发电调度的模糊风险分析[J].水电能源科学,2012,30(12):44-47. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李克飞 纪昌明 张验科 向腾飞 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北电力大学 可再生能源学院， 北京 102206;华北电力大学 可再生能源学院， 北京 102206;华北电力大学 可再生能源学院， 北京 102206;华北电力大学 可再生能源学院， 北京 102206 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项基金资助项目(2009ZX07423-001)；国家自然科学基金资助项目(51179069)；中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助项目（10QX43） |
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| 摘 要： | 针对径流预报误差给水电站水库发电调度带来的风险，在采用组合模型对月径流进行预报和优化调度计算的基础上，构建了水电站水库预报发电调度的模糊风险分析模型框架，并在对入库径流进行随机模拟的条件下设计了模糊风险分析模型的求解流程。三峡水电站水库的实例应用表明，预报误差在5、10月对发电调度的影响较大，且水电站在枯水期的发电模糊风险比汛期高。
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| 关 键 词： | 水电站水库 径流组合预报 发电调度 模糊风险分析 三峡 |
Fuzzy Risk Analysis of Reservoir Predicted Power Generation Operation |
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| LI Kefei,JI Changming,ZHANG Yanke and XIANG Tengfei.Fuzzy Risk Analysis of Reservoir Predicted Power Generation Operation[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2012,30(12):44-47. |
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| Authors: | LI Kefei JI Changming ZHANG Yanke and XIANG Tengfei |
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| Affiliation: | School of Renewable Energy,North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;School of Renewable Energy,North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;School of Renewable Energy,North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;School of Renewable Energy,North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China |
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| Abstract: | In view of the risk of generation scheduling of hydropower station reservoir caused by runoff prediction errors, based on the monthly runoff prediction with ensemble prediction model and optimization calculation of generation scheduling, the fuzzy risk analysis model framework of prediction generation scheduling of hydropower station is established. And then the solution process of the fuzzy risk analysis model is designed under the condition of reservoir runoff obtained by stochastic simulation. The case study of the Three Gorges Reservoir indicates that the runoff prediction errors have greater impacts on generation scheduling in May and October, and the generation fuzzy risk of dry season is much higher than that of flood season. |
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