| 马斯京根模型参数抗差估计方法风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭丽君,赵超.马斯京根模型参数抗差估计方法风险分析[J].水电能源科学,2012,30(3):58-60. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭丽君 赵超 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 浙江广川工程咨询有限公司,浙江杭州,310020
2. 厦门理工学院水资源环境研究所,福建厦门361005;河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 |
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| 基金项目： | 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目（2010490411）；国家自然科学基金资助项目(50909084)；福建省自然科学基金资助项目（2009J05107）；厦门理工学院杰出
青年科研人才培育计划基金资助项目（JA10243） |
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| 摘 要： | 针对马斯京根模型参数抗差估计方法存在将真实值作为异常值的风险,利用蒙特卡洛方法分析了不同频率、不同量级的异常值影响下马斯京根模型参数抗差估计方法风险与效果间的关系。结果表明,马斯京根模型参数抗差估计方法的风险随异常值量级和频率的减小而增大,同时还与估计方法选取的抗差权函数有关。
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| 关 键 词： | 马斯京根模型 抗差估计 异常值 风险分析 蒙特卡洛法 |
Risk Analysis of Robust Parameter Estimating for Muskingum Model |
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| GUO Lijun and ZHAO Chao.Risk Analysis of Robust Parameter Estimating for Muskingum Model[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2012,30(3):58-60. |
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| Authors: | GUO Lijun and ZHAO Chao |
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| Affiliation: | Zhejiang Guangchuan Engineering Consulting Corporation Limited, Hangzhou 310020, China;Water Resources and Environmental Institute, Xiamen University of Technology, Xiamen 361005, China;
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China |
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| Abstract: | Parameter robust estimation in Muskingum model has risk to take true value as abnormal value. Based on Monte Carlo method, the relationship between risk and effect of
method under the influence of different frequency and magnitude are obtained. The results show that the risk of parameter robust estimation in Muskingum model increases with
the magnitude and frequency decreasing and it is also affected by the selected robust weighted-function. |
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| Keywords: | Muskingum model robust estimation abnormal value risk analysis Monte Carlo method |
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