我国发展异戊二烯橡胶前景分析

介绍了异戊二烯橡胶的基本概念和特点,并分别对世界和国内异戊二烯橡胶的供应和消费情况进行分析。通过对国内异戊二烯橡胶市场情况和近年来异戊二烯橡胶进口数据的分析,预测出国内异戊二烯橡胶的需求量;并结合国内天然橡胶大量依赖进口和其销售价格一路攀升的现象、国内市场对异戊二烯橡胶的强烈需求、生产异戊二烯橡胶的原料供应和国内合成异戊二烯橡胶的技术进展情况等,分析了国内异戊二烯橡胶的发展前景。同时,通过研究国内天然橡胶的发展趋势、杜仲胶的发展以及国内相关异戊二烯橡胶装置的实际建设情况,分析了当前投资异戊二烯橡胶项目的潜在风险。通过分析,提出我国异戊二烯橡胶工业正处在有资源、有市场、有技术的较低风险期,在现有装置基础上再建设万吨级以上的异戊二烯橡胶装置是可行的;同时,建议尽快新增10×104～15×104t/a规模的异戊二烯橡胶生产装置,以满足国内需求,提高我国合成橡胶产业的综合实力。

Analysis of Prospects for Developing Isoprene Rubber in China

This article describes the basic concepts and characteristics of isoprene rubber and analyzes the supply and consumption of isoprene rubber in China as well as worldwide.By analyzing the conditions of the domestic isoprene market and China′s isoprene imports in recent years,this article predicts the isoprene demand in China.China imports large quantities of natural rubber every year and the prices of natural rubber in the domestic market have been rising rapidly.The domestic market currently has a strong demand for isoprene rubber.Based on these facts as well as the situation in isoprene rubber feedstock supply and advances in domestic isoprene rubber synthesis technology,this article also analyzes the prospects for developing isoprene in China.In addition,by studying the trends in natural rubber development in China,the development of gutta percha and construction of isoprene rubber units in the country,the article examines the potential risks in investing in isoprene rubber projects.The article concludes that China′s isoprene rubber industry is now in a low-risk stage in which resources,markets and technologies are all accessible and that adding isoprene rubber units with capacities exceeding 10000 tons is feasible.The article suggests adding 10×104～15×104t/a isoprene rubber units as soon as possible to meet domestic demand and boost the overall strength of the domestic synthetic rubber industry.