基于能源-经济-环境CGE模型的北京市PM 2.5污染调控治理政策模拟和评估

PM2.5污染已严重威胁到北京市的生态文明建设和可持续发展。前期利用流体力学和空气动力学原理,建立北京市PM2.5污染扩散的BP神经网络模型,并结合实地调研结果 ,确定北京市PM2.5污染源的成分主要为:机动车尾气排放、燃煤、土壤尘与海洋气溶胶,其中机动车尾气排放和燃煤为首要污染来源。针对PM2.5污染来源,建立环境政策CGE模型,立足能源-经济-环境相互影响的理论基础,模拟各项调控政策所产生的综合成效。从最终的模拟评估结果来看,征收能源税对北京市PM2.5污染的控制效果较为明显,但是能源税的影响范围极为广泛,要防止征收能源税对北京市经济社会发展造成较大的不利影响;推进能源利用技术革新也是行之有效的手段,但要充分估计其可能对政府支出和净出口量短期内带来的波动;提高第三产业比重也是可选择的政策之一。

The Simulation and Evaluation of Beijing PM2.5 Pollution-Control Policy Based on Energy-Economic-Environmental CGE Model

PM2.5 pollution poses a serious threat to Beijing＇s ecological civilization construction and sustainable development.Based on the principles of hydromechanics and aerodynamics,researchers established a BP neural network model for the diffusion of PM2.5 pollution in Beijing and,in conjunction with field survey re- suhs,determined that the main sources of PM2.5 pollution in Beijing are vehicle exhaust emission,coal burn- ing,soil dust and marine aerosol.Vehicle exhaust emission and coal burning are the primary sources of pollu- tion.To understand the sources of PM2.5 pollution,researchers established an environmental policy CGE model to simulate the comprehensive effects of various regulation policies on the basis of the theories on the inter- action between energy,economy and the environment.From the final simulation and assessment results,collect- ing energy tax has good effect on the control of PM2.5 pollution in Beijing.However,energy tax has a wide influence and the adverse effect of collecting energy tax on the city＇s economic and social growth must be held in check.Promoting innovations in energy utilization technology is another effective approach although the short-lived fluctuations in government expenditure and net export volume that may be caused by this must be fully considered.Raising the share of the tertiary industry is another optional policy.