哈尔滨市松花江隧道顶部覆土安全厚度预测模型

针对拟建哈尔滨市松花江隧道的施工过程，首先假定考虑各种不同工况及场地条件下的40种施工设计模型，建立尽可能逼近实际问题的有限元数值分析模型，反复进行模拟计算，据此绘制各单项影响因子与隧道顶部覆土安全厚度之间相互变化关系曲线，并分别给出其高精度的拟合关系式。同时讨论各单项影响因子与隧道顶部覆土安全厚度之间的相关变化规律，从而遴选出影响隧道顶部覆土安全厚度的主要影响因子，然后采用多元逐步回归分析方法，获得能够综合体现各主要影响因子共同作用的隧道顶部覆土安全厚度预测模型。最后，以一相似的隧道工程为例，对所得到的隧道顶部覆土安全厚度预测模型进行有效性与可靠性校验。

FORECASTING MODEL OF SAFE COVER THICKNESS OF TUNNEL CROSSING SONGHUA RIVER IN HARBIN

Aimming at the construction process of Songhua river tunnel which will be built recently, the finite element numerical model is used to solve the actual problem of tunnel for 40 different cases and various proposed sites. The simulation is conducted repeatedly. On the basis of simulated results, the curves between single factor and safe cover thickness are drawn and the high precision fitting relations are given, so that the laws between single factor and safe cover thickness are studied. The main factors affecting the safe cover thickness are singled out. Stepwise regression analysis method is adopted to obtain the forecasting model on safe cover thickness of tunnel and is capable of synthetic embodying the combination action of all main affecting factors. At last, the reliability and efficiency of the model are verified by a calculation example of underwater tunnel.