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滑坡监控信息分析中的修正灰色系统预测模型及应用
引用本文:谢锋,朱陆明,王立忠.滑坡监控信息分析中的修正灰色系统预测模型及应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(22):4099-4105.
作者姓名:谢锋  朱陆明  王立忠
作者单位:1. 浙江大学,岩土工程研究所,浙江,杭州,310027
2. 浙江恒业房地产开发公司,浙江,杭州,310009
摘    要:在灰色系统全数据GM(1,1)模型基础上,经过新陈代谢过程、分阶残差修正和权重修正,依次建立了多个不同修正方式的模型,建模过程考虑了实测信息的非等间隔性。结合富阳来龙山滑坡监控信息,对位于滑坡体主滑段,历时4个典型滑移阶段的B14测孔滑带土位移作预测分析,经过各模型精度检验比较表明,所提出的二阶残差权重修正GM(1,1)模型大幅提高了预测精度和适应性。

关 键 词:工程地质  滑坡  灰色系统预测模型  修正GM(1  1)模型  残差  权重
文章编号:1000-6915(2005)22-4099-07
收稿时间:2004-06-07
修稿时间:2004-06-072004-08-16

MODIFIED GREY SYSTEM FORECASTING MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION FOR ANALYZING INFORMATION OF LANDSLIDE MONITORY
XIE Feng,ZHU Lu-ming,WANG Li-zhong.MODIFIED GREY SYSTEM FORECASTING MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION FOR ANALYZING INFORMATION OF LANDSLIDE MONITORY[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2005,24(22):4099-4105.
Authors:XIE Feng  ZHU Lu-ming  WANG Li-zhong
Abstract:Based on the all data GM(1,1) model of grey system,different modified models are set up in their given order through out the course of metabolism,residual error modified of different rank,and weighted modified. In setting up the model,unequal intervals in the data of the actual measure are considered;and equal intervals of grey system forecasting model are extended to unequal ones. Together with the information of landslide monitored in Lailong Mountain in Fuyang City,the inclinometer B14,which lies in the active slide area and lasts four typical sliding phases,is studied in the course of where the displacement in sliding zone is forecasted and analyzed comparatively by the computational programs of various models. The result of model precision test shows that the residual error of two rank and weighted modified GM(1,1) model can greatly improve the forecasting precision and adjustability.
Keywords:engineering geology  landslide  grey system forecasting model  modified GM(1  1) model  residual error  weight  
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