基于不等时距GM(1,1)模型预测边坡失稳变形

对边坡的失稳变形进行预测可以有效预防灾害的发生。传统灰色GM（1，1）模型多适用于等间距序列监测数据的模拟预测，而实际情况却是由于各种原因导致所获得的监测数据出现不等时距现象。为此，在分析传统等时距GM（1，1）建模原理的基础上建立了不等时距GM（1，1）模型，并对灰参数的求解方法进行了讨论。依据渝黔高速公路某边坡B3测点的监测数据，建立了该边坡变形灰色预测模型，并且将改进灰参数求解方法与传统方法进行了对比，研究结果表明，该不等时距GM（1，1）模型预测精度较高，预测结果与实际吻合较好。

Prediction for Slope Displacement Based on Unequal Interval GM(1,1) Model

Prediction for slope displacement can prevent the occurrence of slope disasters effectively.The original grey GM(1,1) model is usually used in simulation and prediction of equidistant monitoring data sequentce,but the actual situation is the monitoring data which obtained appear unequal interval phenomenon because of some reason.So,unequal interval grey GM(1,1) model is established based on analyzing the establishing principal of original equal interval GM(1,1) model,and the method for calculating the grey parameter is discussed.This improved model is applied for analyzing the B3 monitoring data of a slope of the YU-QIAN highway,by comparing the grey parameter calculation of improved method with those of the conventional method,it is proved that the modified GM(1,1) model is of high accuracy and prediction results agrees well with the actual behavior of the slope.