| 基于改进型GM(1,1)模型的城市水源水质指标预测 |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋月君 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院,测量与地球物理研究所,湖北,武汉,430077;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100049 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2003CB415201) |
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| 摘 要： | 以武汉市主要供水水源的高锰酸盐指数为研究对象,应用经指数平滑改进后的GM(1,1)模型对9个水厂的水源水质进行预测.从预测精度来看,改进型GM(1,1)模型预测精度较常规GM(1,1)模型有所提高,5个改进型GM(1,1)模型精度高于常规型,3个持平,1个稍低.从预测结果来看,6个水厂供水水源水质预测发展趋势良好,3个水厂水源水质变化趋势较差.
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| 关 键 词： | 供水水源 改进型GM(1 1)模型 水质预测 |
Water quality index prediction based on the improved GM(1,1) model in urban water supply sources |
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| Authors: | Song Yuejun |
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| Affiliation: | Song Yuejun |
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| Abstract: | Permanganate index of water quality in 9 water supply sources in Wuhan were predicted with the improved Gray Model(GM(1,1)) which was developed from the conventional GM(1,1) model by exponential smoothing process.The results showed that the precision of the improved GM(1,1) model was better than the conventional GM(1,1) model,the predicting precision of 5 areas were better than the conventional GM(1,1) model,3 were the same as the conventional model and 1 was a little worse than the conventional model.From ... |
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| Keywords: | urban water supply source improved GM(1 1) model water quality prediction |
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