Accuracy of wind energy forecasts in Great Britain and prospects for improvement |
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Affiliation: | 1. REN-Rede Elétrica Nacional, Lisboa, Portugal;2. Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa Pedro, Portugal;3. Nova School of Business and Economics, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal;4. INESC-ID, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal;5. Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, INESC TEC, Portugal |
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Abstract: | The metric representing the wind energy forecast error, when reported as a percent, is calculated quite differently than the error metrics for electricity transmission, electricity load, or in other industries such as manufacturing when they are also reported as a percent. The resulting calculated metric is quite different from what would be reported if the method utilized elsewhere was employed. This paper examines the possible forecast assessment and operational challenges associated with this finding. Concerning the prospects for improvement, the errors reported in MW of energy have a systematic component. With this insight, we developed a model to improve accuracy. |
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Keywords: | Wind energy forecasting Forecast accuracy Q42 Q47 |
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