| 短期供热负荷的灰色拓扑预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡文斌,杨昌智,孙一坚.短期供热负荷的灰色拓扑预测[J].煤气与热力,1999,19(3):51-54. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡文斌 杨昌智 孙一坚 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖南大学环境工程系,长沙,410082 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据灰色预测理论，本文针对短期供热负荷变化的季节性与周期性的特点，提出了一套负荷预测方法－改进灰色拓扑预测方法，采用关联度来选择建模数列，并运用非唯一性原理解释了预测失效点，最后成功地对某热电厂短期负荷的未来值进行了全波形预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 短期供热负荷 灰色拓扑预测 GM(1 1)模型 灰色关联度 |
GREY TOPOLOGY METHOD IN FORECASTING SHORT TERM HEATING LOAD |
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| Hu Wenbin,Yang Changzhi,Sun Yijian.GREY TOPOLOGY METHOD IN FORECASTING SHORT TERM HEATING LOAD[J].Gas & Heat,1999,19(3):51-54. |
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| Authors: | Hu Wenbin Yang Changzhi Sun Yijian |
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| Abstract: | According to Grey Forecasting theory,this paper presents a set of forecasting method aiming at the seasonal and periodical characteristic of short term heating load-Improved Grey Topology Method. It can automatically select a forecasting model with the help of Grey Relation Degree. On the base of Non-uniqueness theory, the gives an explanation of null forecasting points and successfully applies to predict the fluctuating trend of short term heating load. |
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| Keywords: | Heating Load Grey Topology Method GM(1 1) Grey Relation Degree |
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