| 城市燃气短期负荷预测的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 焦文玲,展长虹,廉乐明,严铭卿. 城市燃气短期负荷预测的研究[J]. 煤气与热力, 2001, 21(6): 483-486 |
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| 作者姓名： | 焦文玲 展长虹 廉乐明 严铭卿 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 哈尔滨工业大学市政环境工程学院,
2. 中国市政工程华北设计研究院, |
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| 摘 要： | 分析了城市燃气负荷的特点和影响因素，根据指数平滑预测法的原理，建立了城市燃气短期负荷预测线性模型和二次曲线模型。实际预测结果表明，平滑常数为0.3的直线模型具有较高的预测精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 城市燃气 短期负荷 燃气负荷 预测 指数平滑预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-4416(2001)06-0483-04 |
Study of Forecasting for Short Term Load of City Gas |
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| JIAO Wen-ling ,ZHAN Chang-hong ,LIAN Le-ming ,YAN Ming-qing. Study of Forecasting for Short Term Load of City Gas[J]. Gas & Heat, 2001, 21(6): 483-486 |
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| Authors: | JIAO Wen-ling ZHAN Chang-hong LIAN Le-ming YAN Ming-qing |
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| Affiliation: | JIAO Wen-ling 1,ZHAN Chang-hong 1,LIAN Le-ming 1,YAN Ming-qing 2 |
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| Abstract: | This thesis analyses the properties and influencing factors for the load of city gas. According to the principle of means of the index flatness forecast, it establishes the straight line and curve mathematic model of short term load forecast of city gas. Result of forecasting through the theory in practical example means that the accuracy of straight line model with 0.3 flatness constant is very high. |
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| Keywords: | city gas load short term load daily load forecast of gas load index flatness forecast |
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