基于动态可靠度的服役水闸维修加固风险决策

水闸在服役期间,其抗力是随时间衰减的。同时其所受的活荷载是依赖于时间参数的随机变量,因此水闸结构的可靠性是一个动态变化过程。现有水闸的维修加固需要综合考虑安全与经济这两个问题的权衡。探讨了影响动态可靠度的因素,考虑安全与经济这两个问题的权衡,比较在不同的时间对水闸进行维修加固,以后继服役期内的收益期望值最大为目标,对水闸的维修加固决策进行了探讨。该方法结合工程实际,把失效损失和失效风险率相结合,对服役水闸的维修加固决策有一定的指导作用。

RISK DECESION - MAKING OF REPAIR AND STRENGTHENING OF IN - SERVICE SLUICES BASED ON DYNAMIC RELIABILITY

The resisting force of sluice declines with time during its service time,and the live load operated on the sluice is a random variable related to time parameters.So the dependability of a sluice is a dynamic changing process.During the maintenance and reinforcement of sluices,we need to consider the two aspects,safety and economy.This article discusses the factors that affect the dynamic dependability,considers the balance of safety and economy,compares the maintenance and reinforcement of sluices at different time,and probes into the corresponding decision-making of maintenance and reinforcement of sluices,regarding the maximal expectation value of lucre during the subsequent service-time as a goal.This method integrates with practical project,combines the loss of invalidation with the venture ratio of invalidation,and has definite guidance for the decision-making of maintenance and reinforcement of service-sluices.