中国房价涨势的需求拉动和溢出效应研究

基于 2006~2016 年中国 30 个省市的房价面板数据，运用固定效应模型和分位数回归从整体和局部的视角来探讨房价波动的影响因素。研究结果表明:从整体来看，收入和房价溢出水平拉动房价上涨的特征较为明显；在东部地区，人口因素对房价波动的正向影响强于其他因素；在中部地区，建设成本和房价溢出因素的变动对房价波动的影响最大；在西部地区，人口因素和房价溢出因素对房价涨势的影响最为显著。研究认为，应坚持贯彻“房子是用来住的，不是用来炒的”理念，遏制房地产的投机行为，使住房逐步恢复到原有的“居住”属性。

Demand Pulling and Spillover Effects of Rising House Prices in China

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities across the country from 2006 to 2016，a fixed-effect model andquantile regression are used to explore the factors affecting house price fluctuations from an overall and local perspective. Theresults of the study show that:In China，income and the spillover effect of house prices are the key factors incurring the rise of houseprices. In eastern China，the positive impact of demographic factors on house price fluctuations is stronger than other factors. Incentral China，changes in construction costs and house price spillover factors have the greatest impact on price fluctuations. Inwestern China，demographic factors and house price spillover factors have the most significant impact on housing prices. The studyindicates that the concept of “housing is for living in，not for speculation.” should be adhered to curb speculation in real estate，andgradually restore housing is for people to live in.