城市收缩与人口老龄化——基于中国138个县级市的实证

Urban shrinkage is a world-wide phenomenon characterized by population loss in a short period of time.During this process,the decrease of the younger generation will further accelerate the demographic aging process through lowering birth rates.Although many studies have qualitatively addressed that demographic aging could be both a result and cause of urban shrinkage,empirical studies to examine their interrelations are lacking.This paper aims to examine their interrelationships by proposing an integrated model which covers the paths,effects,and interrelationships between shrinking cities and demographic aging in economic,spatial,and social dimensions.Based on the data from 138 county-level cities in China,partial least-square method is used for structural equation modeling(PLS-SEM).The results show that two indirect influence paths exist between shrinking cities and the demographic aging process.First,urban shrinkage has an indirect interaction with the demographic aging process via social and economic factors(path:shrinking cities←→society←→economy←→aging process).Second,urban shrinkage is also indirectly interrelated with the demographic aging process in spatial factors(path:shrinking cities←→space←→aging process).To deal with the double challenges of urban shrinkage and demographic aging,planning policies should integrate with policies in socio-economic and spatial aspects.