基于循环函数的石油化工火灾推演软件开发及应用

针对“情景—应对”突发事件处置模式的概率推演方法存在主观性强、针对性不足等缺陷，以石油化工火灾事故为对象，在分析事故情景演变路径节点（情景元）特征要素的基础上，收集两百余起石油化工火灾历史案例，利用文本挖掘并转化为数字编码，基于数据库管理软件SQLift 构建情景演变路径数据库。利用Java 程序语言中的循环函数调用数据库解决情景推演中路径节点确定的问题，并进一步基于频率思想实现推演概率值确定问题，按照前期思路开发出“石油化工火灾事故情景推演系统”手机APP。以某液化石油气储罐区火灾事故为实例，验证本文所提出情景推演方法及推演软件的可行性。

Development and application of software for fire prediction in petrochemical industry based on circular function

The methods used in the probabilistic deduction of the "scenario- response" emergency handling model have shortcomings such as strong subjectivity and insufficient pertinence. This paper takes petrochemical fire accidents as the object. Firstly, based on the analysis of the characteristic elements of the accident scenario evolution path node (scenario element), it collects more than two hundred petrochemical fire historical cases, uses text mining and transforms them into digital codes, based on database management software SQLift constructs the scenario evolution path database. Then use the loop function in the Java programming language to call the database to solve the problem of determining the path node in the scenario deduction, and further realize the problem of determining the probability value of the deduction based on the frequency idea, and develop the "Petrochemical Fire Accident Scenario Deduction System" mobile APP according to the previous thinking. Finally, a fire accident in a liquefied petroleum gas storage tank area is used as an example to verify the feasibility of the scenario deduction method and deduction software proposed in this paper.