公路隧道滞留人员密度和疏散时间预测研究

为研究公路隧道突发火灾事故下滞留人员的密度与疏散时间，结合火灾应急响应时间与处置要求，引入交通波传播理论，考虑交通流状态、人员组成、车辆组成等因素，提出滞留人员密度计算方法，并以人员密度、大巴车疏散时间等为参数，构建人员疏散时间预测模型，分析不同交通流条件下的疏散时间，通过实例计算与数值仿真，验证了模型的有效性。结果表明：基于交通波理论提出的滞留人员密度计算方法，能准确地计算出隧道突发火灾事故后的人员密度分布，符合真实场景中的非均匀分布特征；采用人员疏散时间预测模型，能快速预测公路隧道人员疏散所需时间，预测结果与仿真结果基本一致。

Study on the prediction of the density of people detained and the evacuation time in highway tunnels

In order to study the density and evacuation time of people detained in sudden fire accidents in highway tunnels, combined with the fire emergency response time and disposal requirements, the traffic wave propagation theory is introduced, and the traffic flow status, personnel composition, vehicle composition and other factors are considered. A calculation method of the density of people detained is proposed. With the personnel density, bus evacuation time and other parameters, a prediction model of the evacuation time of people is constructed, the evacuation time under different traffic flow conditions is analyzed, and the effectiveness of the model is verified through case calculation and numerical simulation. The results show that the calculation method of the density of people detained based on the traffic wave theory can accurately calculate the distribution of the density of people after the tunnel fire accident, which conforms to the non-uniform distribution characteristics in the real scene; The prediction model of evacuation time can quickly predict the time required for highway tunnel evacuation, and the prediction results are basically consistent with the simulation results.