| 大破口失水事故分析方法GSM的开发与应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 曹志伟,林支康,王婷,梁任,鲍杰,卢向晖.大破口失水事故分析方法GSM的开发与应用[J].原子能科学技术,2019,53(11):2183-2189. |
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| 作者姓名： | 曹志伟 林支康 王婷 梁任 鲍杰 卢向晖 |
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| 作者单位： | 中广核研究院有限公司，广东 深圳518031;生态环境部 核与辐射安全中心，北京100082 |
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| 摘 要： | 中广核确定论统计方法（GSM）是介于保守评价模型和最佳估算评价模型之间的失水事故（LOCA）分析方法。在该方法中，程序模型采用确定论现实方法（DRM）惩罚模型进行保守方法处理，对电厂模型采用保守假设，对电厂重要状态参数采用统计方法量化确定不确定性范围和分布，并对统计抽样计算得到的目标参数分别采用参数统计和非参数统计处理以得到包壳峰值温度的双95%值上限值。将该方法应用于CPR1000核电厂大破口LOCA分析，与传统DRM相比可挖掘约9%的LOCA裕量。
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Development and Application of GSM for LB LOCA Analysis Method |
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| CAO Zhiwei,LIN Zhikang,WANG Ting,LIANG Ren,BAO Jie,LU Xianghui.Development and Application of GSM for LB LOCA Analysis Method[J].Atomic Energy Science and Technology,2019,53(11):2183-2189. |
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| Authors: | CAO Zhiwei LIN Zhikang WANG Ting LIANG Ren BAO Jie LU Xianghui |
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| Affiliation: | China Nuclear Power Technology Research Institute, Shenzhen 518031, China;Nuclear and Radiation Safety Center, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Beijing 100082, China |
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| Abstract: | CGN deterministic statistic methodology (GSM) is a loss of coolant accident (LOCA) analysis method that is between the most conservative evaluation model and the best estimate evaluation model. This methodology maintains the deterministic realistic method (DRM) penalization model to ensure the conservatism of the code models and penalizing assumption to ensure a conservative plant modeling, while applying random sampling technique to statistically quantify the uncertainty range and distribution of plant status parameters, and both parametric and non-parametric methods are adopted to calculate the statistical upper bounding value (PCT95/95). When applying the GSM for CPR1000 nuclear power plant LB LOCA analysis, the margin generated can be 9% compared with DRM conservative LOCA analysis. |
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| Keywords: | LOCA analysis method uncertainty quantification parameter statistic Wilk’s non-parametric statistic analysis method normality test |
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