核电厂人因可靠性分析中的相关性分析方法研究

人因可靠性分析（HRA）是核电厂风险分析中的重要组成部分，其中人误事件的相关性分析是HRA中必不可少的内容，忽略人误事件间的相关性，将导致低估核电厂的风险水平。本文提出了一种基于D（邓）数和层次分析法-决策试行与评价实验室（AHP-DEMATEL）方法的相关性分析模型。首先，确定两事件间相关性的影响因素及其结构关系，并针对每个影响因素建立相关性等级的隶属度函数及其锚点；其次，利用AHP-DEMATEL方法来确定各影响因素的综合权重；最后，根据实际情况评估各因素的相关性等级并构建D数，并根据D数和综合权重计算出两人因事件的相关性程度及其可信度，通过算例验证了该模型及其方法的有效性。 

Research on Dependence Assessment in Human Reliability Analysis of Nuclear Power Plants

Human reliability analysis (HRA) is an important part of nuclear power plant risk analysis. The dependence analysis of human errors is an essential part of HRA. Ignoring the dependence between human errors will lead to the underestimation of the risk level of nuclear power plants. This paper presents a model of dependence assessment based on D numbers and AHP-DEMATEL method. Firstly, the factors affecting the dependence between events are determined and their structural relationships are established, and the membership function and anchor point of the dependence degree are established for each factor. Secondly, the comprehensive weight of each factor is determined by using AHP-DEMATEL method. Finally, the dependence degree of each factor is evaluated according to the actual situation and the D numbers is constructed. And, according to the D numbers and the comprehensive weight, the total dependence degree and the reliability of the two human failure events are calculated. The validity of the model and method is verified by an example.