坪北油田致密油藏产量影响因素及预测方法

与常规油藏相比,致密油藏物性较差且渗透率低,油井需压裂建产。由于特殊的地质特征及开发工艺,造成影响该类型油藏产量的因素较多,矿场常用的简单类比法产量预测不能满足实际生产需求。为解决该问题,以鄂尔多斯盆地坪北油田致密油藏为研究对象,以经典达西公式为基础,通过灰色理论分析,定量描述影响产量的主控因素。同时利用多元回归法建立一套数学模型,并通过对新投井的产量预测,验证模型的可信度。利用灰色理论与多元回归相结合的多学科综合方法开展油井产量预测,比传统方法更加科学和准确,可供同类油藏开发借鉴。

Influencing Factors and Prediction Methods for Production of Tight Oil Reservoir in Pingbei Oilfield

Compared with conventional oil reservoirs, tight oil reservoirs have poor physical properties and low permeability, and wells drilled in these reservoirs need to be fractured for more production. Due to the geological features and special development techniques, there are many factors affecting the production of these reservoirs, and the simple analogy method commonly used on site for production prediction cannot meet the actual needs. In order to solve this problem, taking the tight oil reservoir in Pingbei oilfield of Ordos basin as the research object and based on the Darcy equation, the main influencing factors for production were quantitatively described through grey theoretical analysis. Moreover, a mathematical model was established by using the multiple regression method, and applied to predict the production of new wells in order to verify the reliability of the model. Production prediction by using the multidisciplinary method that combines the grey theory and multiple regression is more scientific and accurate than by using traditional methods, and it can provide a reference for the development of similar oil reservoirs.