几种油气田产量预测模型的对比

分析对比了Rayleigh模型、HZC模型以及Weibull模型,并建立有关参量之间的数学关系。分析对比表明,Rayleigh模型的最高年产量时的累计产量为可采储量的39.35%,适用于产量快速上升,到达最高年产量后又快速下降的油气田;HZC模型的最高年产量时的累计产量与可采储量的关系由参数B控制,较Rayleigh模型适用范围广;而Welbull模型最高年产量时的累计产量与可采储量的关系由参数α控制,其适用范围较前2种模型更广。

Comparison of Production Prediction Models for Several Oil-Gas Fields

This paper presents comparative analysis of Rayleigh model,HZC model and Weibull model in model development and feature as well as mathematical relationships among the maximum annual production,the maximum annual cumulative production and the recoverable reserves.The study indicates that the cumulative production at the maximum annual production from Rayleigh model amounts to 39.35% of recoverable reserves,and this model can be appropriate for oil and gas fields with production rate increasing rapidly first and then decreasing quickly after reaching the peak annual production;the relationship between the cumulative production and recoverable reserves at the maximum annual production from HZC model is controlled by the parameter B,it can be more widely used compared with Rayleigh model;however,the relationship between them from Weibull model is governed by the parameter α,so its applicability is the widest of the three models.