进口天然气盈亏平衡定价对市场的影响——以广州市中亚天然气为例

2011年11月底土库曼斯坦天然气经过中亚—中国天然气管道和西气东输二线管道正式向位处华南的广州市供气。然而,由于中国天然气价格与国际气价脱节,天然气进口业务陷入进口越多亏损越多的尴尬境地,提高进口气入关后的价格将有助于缓解长期以来的进口气购销价格倒挂问题。为此,以广州市为例,测算了中亚天然气盈亏平衡时不同天然气用户的气价;采用天然气与可替代能源等热值直接成本对比法,按各类天然气用户实际支付可替代能源的现有价格等热值折算分析了对应的中亚天然气价格可承受能力。结果表明:从价格承受能力来看,居民用户和公共福利用户基本上是可以承受中亚天然气盈亏平衡定价;工商业用户也有一部分可以承受上述定价,但对燃料成本占总成本比重较大的用户,承受能力则较弱;天然气发电用户无法承受上述定价,中亚天然气发电只能扮演调峰角色。考虑到西气东输管道输送的既有国产气,也有进口气,为此提出:可以将国产气的出厂价与进口气的成本价加权平均,作为西气东输天然气的"出厂价"。

The impact of break-even pricing of the imported gas on the gas market in China: A case study

By the end of November 2011, after traveling 6 811 km through the Central Asia - China Pipeline and the West-East pipeline Ⅱ, the Turkmen gas arrived in Guangzhou＇s sub-transmission stations and started officially to supply gas to this city. However, because gas prices in China are not on the track of global market mechanism, natural gas import business is now in the dilemma that the more the imported gas, the greater loss will be. To enhance the gas prices after the entry will alleviate to some degree the imported gas price inversion in the long run. In this case study, we first estimated the Central Asian break-even gas prices for different users in Guangzhou, which were then compared with the current prices of the other alternative energy sources via calorific value conversion. On this basis, the corresponding break-even price affordability of different users in this city was discussed. Basically, the inhabitant users and public welfare users can afford the Central Asian break-even gas prices, so do some industrial or commercial users, but that will be a burden for those industrial users who spend most of their total cost on the fuel consumption. Especially for those users associated with natural gas-fueled power generation, the Central Asian gas can only work in peak-shaving days. In the end, we suggested that the weighted average of the domestic gas price and the imported gas price be used as the factory price of West-to-East gas.