层次分析法在石油安全评价中的应用

影响石油安全的因素很多，如何确定不同因素影响的程度和权重是石油安全评价中的关键。层次分析法可以对非定量事物进行定量分析，为我国石油安全评价指标权重的确定提供了可行的途径。文章通过在石油安全评价中建立评价指标体系和层次结构模型，运用层次分析法构建不同层次及各类因素中全部指标的判断矩阵，通过矩阵运算和一致性检验，得到各级指标的权重及层次单排序、层次总排序。根据最终的排序结果，资源和市场是对石油安全影响较大的两类因素，战略石油储备度、储采比和石油消费增长速度是影响我国石油安全最主要的3个指标。

THE APPLICATION OF AHP FOR DETERMINING INDICATOR WEIGHT IN OIL/GAS SECURITY ASSESSMENT

Due to the mass influencing factors to oil/gas security, it is the most key point to determinate the indicator weight and degree. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) can be used to carry out the quantitative analysis to the non-quantitative things, and as a feasible method, adopted for determining the weight of each index. The index system and the hierarchy structure model are established in the assessment of oil/gas security in this paper. The judge matrix is formed with the different rank and sort factors by the AHP. The weight, the hierarchy single arrangement and the multi-arrangement are obtained through the matrix operation and uniform examination. From the final arrangement result, it is concluded that the resource and market are the main two factors, while the degree of SPR, the Reserves-to-Production (R/P) ratio and the growth speed of oil consumption are the three indicators in influencing the oil/gas security in China.