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中国的煤层大多具有致密、低渗透率特性，煤层气解吸、渗流困难，影响煤层气产量的因素较多且复杂。文章系统地分析和总结了煤层介质的低渗透率特性、煤层气的解吸扩散渗流特性、煤层与围岩的组合方式、含气饱和度对煤层气产量的影响，并用R/S分析方法研究了煤层气不稳定渗流产量的变化趋势，在此基础上，用灰色GM(1，1)模型预测了煤层气产量的变化规律，进行了实例分析。结果表明：煤层渗透率中等、含气饱和度在78%以上、压裂等措施是获得高产量煤层气的关键因素；R/S分析方法和GM(1，1)模型相结合是预测煤层气不稳定渗流产量变化的有效方法；根据上述关键因素和分析及预测的方法，科学预测煤层气不稳定渗流产量变化规律，有利于合理开发煤层气资源，提供洁净的能源，有效地保护大气环境，并从根本上改善煤矿安全生产条件，减少瓦斯爆炸事故。

Affecting Factors of Coal-bed Gas Production and Production Prediction of Unstable Percolation

Most of coal formations have the characteristics of tight and low permeability in China. Therefore, desorption and percolation of coal-bed gas is difficult. There are a lot of factors to affect the production of coal-bed gas. The article systematically analyzes and sums the low permeability feature of coal-bed mediums, the coal-bed gas features of desorption, diffusion and percolation, the combination style of coal formations and enclosing rocks, and the influence of gas saturation on coal-bed gas production. Also, with R/S analysis, the production-changing trend of unstable percolation of coal-bed gas is investigated. Based on it, the production-changing law of coal-bed gas is studied with the gray model GM (1, 1) and a real case is analyzed. The results show when the permeability of the coal formation is medium and the gas saturation is more than 78%, the stimulation such as fracturing etc. is the key to obtain high coal-bed gas production. And combining R/S analysis with the model GM (1, 1) is the effective way to predict the production-changing law of unstable percolation of coal-bed gas. According to the above-mentioned main factors, analysis and prediction methods, scientifically predicting the production-changing law of unstable percolation of coal-bed gas is favorable to properly exploit the coal-bed gas resource, provide the clean energy, effectively protect the atmospheric environment, essentially improve the safe conditions of coal mine operation and reduce the gas explosion accidents.