成熟探区勘探目标群油气期望价值评估方法

我国的矿业权出让制度改革正在全面推进，合理评价区块期望价值对于油公司的区块进退决策至关重要。对于含有多个勘探目标的成熟探区，简单地将各目标价值相加通常会高估区块期望价值，应综合考虑两方面的因素:一是各勘探目标的地质情况，包括相对空间位置关系、地质成功率、资源规模和地质相关性等；二是油公司的勘探策略，包括干井承受能力、承诺钻井数量、对各目标的钻探次序等。为此，从油公司区块进退决策实际出发，提出一套基于概率论的勘探目标群期望价值估算方法，并通过实例讨论了上述因素对区块期望价值的影响。 

An estimation method for hydrocarbon expected value of exploration target group in mature exploration area

The transfer system reform of mining rights in China is promoted in a comprehensive way. The rational evaluation of the expected value of blocks is crucial to the decision-making of bidding and exiting blocks for oil companies. As to the mature exploration area containing multiple exploration targets, adding up each expected value of each target simply usually over-estimates the expected value of blocks. Two factors should be comprehensively considered. The first one is geological conditions, including relative spatial relation, drilling success rate, resource scale and geological relation, etc. The second one is exploration strategy of oil company, including the bearing capacity of dry well, the number of commitment well and the drilling sorting of each exploration target, etc. Therefore, a set of estimation methods for exploration target group based on probabilistic theory was proposed from the oil company's practical decision-making of bidding and exiting blocks. The effect of the above factors on the expected value of blocks was also discussed using a specific block as an example.