“双碳”目标下重点行业减排路径模拟及对策研究

碳达峰、碳中和目标的提出标志着我国能源发展进入新阶段，实现“双碳”目标关键是加快推进能源体系系统性变革，其中工业、建筑、交通等用能行业和电力生产行业降碳减排任务十分紧迫。基于“世界与中国能源展望模型”测算，在“双碳”目标约束下，终端用能行业碳排放将于2025年达峰，其中工业和交通行业达峰时间早于建筑行业，2060年碳排放将低于10×108t；电力行业碳排放于2030年达峰，2060年实现负排放。终端用能电气化与电力行业低碳化的协调推进是实现低碳转型的关键。2060年，终端用能行业电气化率将达到60%，非化石能源发电量占比将达到近90%。应加快产业结构调整，发展节能循环经济，大力提升电力、氢能等二次能源在终端用能行业中的消费，加快新型电力系统建设，建立新能源开发利用激励机制，确保“双碳”目标如期实现。

Decarbonization Paths in China’s Key Sector under Goals of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality

The “3060” goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality marks a new stage of China’s energy development. Accelerating a series of transformations of the energy system holds the key to realization of the “dual carbon” goals. The decarbonization task is of great urgency in the sectors of industry, building, transportation an electric power generation. The results of “World and China Energy Outlook Model” show that China’s carbon emissions from the terminal energy-consuming sectors will peak in 2025 under the restrictions of the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. The peak time of the industrial and transportation sectors will be earlier than that of the building sector, with the annual carbon emission being less than 10×10⁸t by 2060. Carbon emission from the electric power sector will peak in 2030, with negative emission brought about in 2060. The coordinating and promoting efforts for electrification of the terminal energy-consuming sector and low carbonization of the electric power sector hold the key to the nation’s low-carbon transition. The electrification rate of the terminal energy-consuming sector will reach 60 percent by 2060, while the proportion of power generation from non-fossil energy will approach 90 percent. China should accelerate industrial structural adjustment, develop the energy-saving recycling economy, substantially increase consumption of secondary energy like electric power and hydrogen energy in the terminal sector, accelerate construction of the new-type electric power system establish the incentive mechanism for new energy development and utilization, and ensure fulfillment of the carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals as scheduled.