预测油气田产量和可采储量的广义Weibull模型

广义Weibull概率密度函数在多个领域有着广泛的应用,其分布形态能较好地描述油气田开发过程中产量变化模式。依据广义Weibull概率密度函数的特征,建立了随开发时间变化的产量和累计产量预测模型;同时,新模型涵盖了几种特定产量预测模型,具有一定的广义性。通过实例验证表明,广义Weibull预测模型的预测效果较好,其预测年产量和累计产量的平均相对误差分别仅为2.15%和0.36%,误差小,精度高。说明该预测模型是可靠的,具有一定的实用性。

GENERALIZED WEIBULL MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE PRODUCTION AND RECOVERABLE RESERVES OF OIL AND GAS FIELDS

The generalized Weibull probability density function has a wide application in many fields,and its distribution morphology can describe and characterize the change pattern of the oil and gas development.According to the characteristics of the generalized Weibull probability density function,the production and cumulative production predicting models with the development time were established;meanwhile,the new model covers several specific production forecasting models,which have a certain generalization.The case verification shows that the generalized Weibull model have much better prediction effects,and the average relative errors of the annuai and cumulative production predictions are only 2.15％ and 0.36％,so the errors are pretty small and moreover the precision is so high.In a word,the predicting models are proved to be reliable and have a certain practicability.