一种“KooN”结构的马尔可夫简并建模和简化计算的方法

IEC61508等标准提出了几种计算安全仪表系统需求时平均失效概率的方法,但是,对于具有冗余配置的复杂系统,随着组件数量的增加,系统的中间状态数量快速增长,用户难以构建马尔可夫模型,即便借助计算机来建模运算也较为耗时。提出了一种同型“K oo N”简并状态的马尔可夫建模的通用方法,首先是根据降级状态进行判断,将符合条件的状态进行简并,然后对标记为危险失效状态的概率进行计算。通过严格的理论推导,该简并状态方法可以在不损失精度的前提下简化马尔可夫建模。

A Markov Degenerate Modeling With “KooN” Structure and Simplified Calculation Method

Several methods for calculating the average probability of failure on demand of safety instrumented system are put forward in standards such as IEC61508. But as for complex system with redundancy configuration, with the increasing of module number, intermediate state numbers increase rapidly, the user has difficult to construct the Markov model. It is also very time consumable even with the help of computer to construct the model to calculate. A common method of Markov modeling method of same type KooN degenerate state is proposed. Firstly, it is judged according to the degraded state, and the state that meeting the conditions is merged. And then, the probability for the state marked as dangerous and failing is calculated. Through strict theoretical derivation, the degenerate state method can simplify Markov modelling without loss of accuracy.