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| 优化GM(1,1)模型在产油量预测中的应用 | |
| 引用本文： | 田敏,赵永军,颛孙鹏程,谭杰.优化GM(1,1)模型在产油量预测中的应用[J].油气地质与采收率,2008,15(4):88-90. |
| 作者姓名： | 田敏 赵永军 颛孙鹏程 谭杰 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国石油大学(华东)地球资源与信息学院,山东,东营,257061 2. 中国石化集团胜利石油管理局,钻井工程技术公司,山东,东营,257064 3. 中国石化集团胜利石油管理局,黄河钻井公司,山东,东营,257064 |
| 摘 要： | 针对传统GM（1，1）模型在初始条件选取上的局限性，优化GM（1，1）模型按照使序列X^（1）与其模拟序列^↑X^（1）之差的平方和最小的原则，确定白化权函数中的常数，构建优化的时间响应函数。为使GM（1，1）模型对变化较大的时间序列也有较高的预测精度，优化GM（1，1）模型对传统GM（1，1）模型的背景值也进行了优化。优化模型在产油量预测中使平均相对误差由3．8％下降至0．8％，提高了模拟精度，为提高GM（1，1）模型的预测精度提供了一条新的途径。 |
| 关 键 词： | 传统GM(1 1)模型 初始条件 背景值 优化GM(1 1)模型 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008/6/2 0:00:00 |
The application of an optimized GM(1,1) model in the forecasting of the oil production. |
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| Tian Min Zhao Yongjun Zhuansun Pengcheng et al Tian Min College of Geo-resources , Information,China University of Petroleum,Dongying City,Sh,ong Province,China.The application of an optimized GM(1,1) model in the forecasting of the oil production.[J].Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency,2008,15(4):88-90. | |
| Authors: | Tian Min Zhao Yongjun Zhuansun Pengcheng Tian Min College of Geo-resources Information China University of Petroleum Dongying City Sh ong Province China |
| Affiliation: | Tian Min Zhao Yongjun Zhuansun Pengcheng et al Tian Min College of Geo-resources , Information,China University of Petroleum(East China),Dongying City,Sh,ong Province,257061,China |
| Abstract: | Regarding the limitation of the initial condition in the original GM(1,1)model,optimized GM(1,1)model ascertains the con- stant in the whitenization weight function and establish the opti- mized time response function according to the principle of mak- ing the sum of the squares of the difference between the se- quences X~(1)and its simulated sequences(?)minimum.The back- ground value of the original model was optimized based on the optimized GM(1,1)model in order to improve the forecasting precision in the... |
| Keywords: | original GM(1 1)model initial condition back-ground value optimized GM(1 |
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