近年中国油气勘探开发形势及发展建议

近年来,中国的石油年新增探明储量明显下降,以致出现新增可采储量小于当年产量的情况,年产量也连续5年降至2×10⁸t以下。2015—2019年的平均勘探开发投资处于低谷是近年来石油储量、产量处于降势的原因之一。中国天然气快速发展期的出现比石油晚一个"相位",目前仍处在快速发展的平台上。中国页岩气近10年来已获得良好的起步,但应看到已获得的探明储量仅限于四川盆地东南部的五峰组—龙马溪组页岩。鄂尔多斯盆地西南部延长组7油层组已获得页岩油探明储量并开始建设开发实验区,准噶尔盆地吉木萨尔凹陷芦草沟组页岩油也获得重大突破并有望在储量、产量上取得大的进展,但应注意到中国页岩油的开发难度大、经济开发门槛高。致密(砂岩)油气是近期中国非常规油气中可望获得较快进展的领域,其中,鄂尔多斯盆地和四川盆地是其增储上产的主力地区。煤层气的进展与最初的期望差距较大,需要对其赋存条件和开发技术作认真研究。建议尽快实施油气生产的新一轮战略接替评价,并提出了5个优选区和领域;倡议设立勘探基金以支持开拓性的勘查项目,提出应以服务市场经济为导向对储量审定的相关规范进行补充修改。

Situation of China’s oil and gas exploration and development in recent years and relevant suggestions

In recent years,the annual incremental proved reserves of petroleum in China has decreased significantly.As a result,the incremental recoverable reserves are less than the output of the year,and the annual output has also fallen below 2×10⁸t for 5 years.The average investment in exploration and development from 2015 to 2019 was at rock bottom,which is one of the reasons for the decline in oil reserves and production.The rapid development period of gas in China is a phase later than that of oil,and now it is still during a fast-developing period.China’s shale gas has made a good beginning in the past 10 years,but it should be noted that the proved reserves obtained are limited to the shale in the Wufeng-Longmaxi formations in the southeastern Sichuan Basin.The proved reserves of shale oil have been obtained in the 7 th oil layer of Yanchang Formation,and the construction of pilot development area has been started in the southwest of Ordos Basin.A major breakthrough of shale oil in the Lucaogou Formation has also been made in Jimsar sag of Junggar Basin,which is expected to achieve significant progress in reserves and production.However,it should be noted that the development of shale oil in China faces great difficulty and the threshold for economic development is high.Tight(sandstone)oil and gas is a field in which rapid progress is expected for the development of unconventional oil and gas in China in the near future.Of these,the Ordos Basin and the Sichuan Basin are the main areas for increasing reserves and production.The progress in coalbed methane development is far from the initial expectations,and careful researches are required for its occurrence conditions and development technology.This paper suggests that a new round of evaluation for strategic succession of oil and gas production should be carried out as soon as possible,proposes 5 preferred areas and fields,sponsors the establishment of an exploration fund to support pioneering exploration projects,and proposes to supplement and revise the relevant norms of reserve appraisal based on market orientation.