石油勘探开发项目实物期权特性分析

从金融领域衍生的实物期权理论能更充分地考虑项目进展过程中的灵活性价值和战略价值。石油公司参与经营大型石油和天然气勘探开发项目的典型商业决策时序属期权行为，详细分析了石油勘探开发项目的实物期权特性，提出了实物期权法应用于石油勘探开发项目战略经济评价领域的原因及应用机理，分析了终止期权和停启期权的涵义，并且通过实例讨论实物期权理论在石油勘探开发项目战略经济评价领域的评价效果。在对石油勘探与开发这类高风险、不确定性因素多的项目进行经济评价时，用实物期权法能将项目的各个阶段分别考虑，在每个阶段结束后，投资者都可根据项目进展情况决定是否继续投资，有效地规避风险；而传统的现金流量法一旦对项目投资，中途不可终止，可能对投资产生误导。实物期权法有利于提高石油勘探开发项目的经济性以及决策的准确性。

Real option characters of petroleum exploration and development projects

The theory of real option derived from the financial world could better take into account the financial value of adaptability and strategy of the petroleum exploration and development projects. The commercial strategy sequence of oil companies managing the petroleum exploration and development projects is a kind of option activity. The characters of real options of the petroleum exploration and development projects are analyzed, and the reason and mechanism of applying the real options method in the economic evaluation of the projects are discussed in this paper. Also discussed are the connotations of abandonment option and shutdown option. Example analysis is provided to demonstrate the evaluation efficiency. In the economic evaluation of the petroleum exploration and development projects with high risks and many uncertainties, the real option method allows to evaluate the project in each separate stage. The investors may choose to continue or stop the project according to the progress conditions, while the conventional cash flow method does not allow to stop the project during the process, which may misdirect the investment. The real option method may help to enhance the economic value and accuracy of decision making of the petroleum exploration and development projects.