基于时间序列和PERT的服装销售预测方法研究

准确、可靠的销售预测对服装企业营销计划制定、安全库存和现金流正常运转等都起到非常重要的作用。文章从服装销售的实际特点出发,通过引入PERT模型和时间序列模型,借鉴两模型的各自优势,建立一个新的综合模型,为企业克服销售预测中的操作不规范性和预测的主观性提供新的思路;并且通过实例证明了新模型的有效性。

Study on Forecast Method for Garment Sales Based on Time Series and PERT

Exact and reliable forecast of sales is very important for garment industry in marketing plan, safe stock and regularturn of cash flow. The PERT and time series models were introduced based on the real characteristics of garment marketing. A newcomprehensive model was established by using the advantages of the models for reference, to provide a new thought forovercoming the nonstandard operation and the subjective forecast in sales forecast;and the validity of the new model wasverified with example.